The impending 2020 rematch
Incumbent President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party announced his intention to run for reelection in April 2023. Although global views of Joe Biden are generally high in comparison to other world leaders, Biden has seen consistently low approval ratings across the United States since his inauguration. In addition to falling approval across several issues, many hold a personally unfavorable opinion of Biden, with roughly 60 percent of adults considering him a weak leader in 2023. Despite increasing public concern surrounding Biden’s decision to run for reelection, few high profile alternatives remain. Although there is rarely any question of whether an incumbent will receive their party’s presidential nomination, a number of Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring.Republican front-runner Donald Trump has faced a number of legal challenges, including his disputed election eligibility, two impeachments by the House of Representatives, and almost 100 criminal charges for election interference, attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, falsifying records and mismanagement of classified information. However, the former president still holds the support of over half of the Republican Party and remains the most funded candidate in the 2024 race. Despite initial efforts to challenge Trump in the Republican primaries, all have since dropped out of the race, leaving Trump the party's presumptive nominee.
The rise of independent voters
As of January 2024, polls in swing states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin showed President Joe Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in all seven battleground states. Despite being the current front-runners, the majority of Americans do not want either Joe Biden or Donald Trump to run for president in 2024. Both candidates, Joe Biden, 80, and Donald Trump, 77, have received increasing concerns regarding their age and the possibility of another term. Due in part to a widespread lack of enthusiasm surrounding the two presidential front-runners, interest in alternative options has risen, resulting in a record share of independent electorates. Running independently are former Green Party member Cornel West and former Democratic candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Support varies significantly by generation, with over half of Generation Z and millennials identifying as independent and over 40 percent having considered voting independently in the forthcoming election.What issues do voters care about?
With jobs being a top political issue for voters in the United States, a lot of weight is placed on job creation in discourse surrounding Presidents and Congress. Some regard the number of jobs a president creates as being directly tied to how successful they have been in office. Additionally, policies such as tax reform, deregulation, and infrastructure investments are important to voters due to their influence over business environments, job creation, and unemployment. Although the U.S. economy has been strengthening, many Americans do not feel this in their everyday life. Across the country, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has continued to rise and with it the cost of living, leaving many Americans struggling to make ends meet.Other significant economic indicators among voters are taxes and government spending. While Republicans would prefer to see government spending on programs like Social Security or Medicare reduced, those in the Democratic Party are more likely to advocate raising taxes on the richest individuals to compensate for the deficit. Despite the tendency of both parties to blame each other for financial issues affecting the nation, a significant amount of debt has been accrued under presidents of both parties.
Abortion remains a controversial subject across the U.S., thus securing its place as a powerful campaign tool moving into 2024. In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, granting states the power to completely ban abortion if desired. The ruling has been a mobilizing force for voters, and is likely to remain a determining issue throughout the election. Additionally, in response to continued mass shootings across the country, the debate surrounding gun ownership has widened, with nearly twice as many Democrats advocating for stricter gun regulations than Republicans. Other partisan issues include climate change and the environment, as well as healthcare access, LGBTQ rights, and immigration. As one of the nation’s longest-standing debates, the issue of immigration lingers on across the country. Alongside support for restrictive immigration intensifying among Republicans, support from Democrats for open immigration has grown. The worsening polarization between the two parties has hindered productive reform, resulting in dissatisfaction from all sides.
Trust in the age of misinformation
Bolstered by diminishing trust in the government and its agencies, a considerable number of Republicans refused to acknowledge the outcomes of the 2020 election. This resulted in Trump supporters storming the Capitol building during the certification of the election results on January 6th, 2021. Trump's accountability in the Capitol attacks remains a politically divisive debate, with many convinced that Trump's role in the events should disqualify him from running for president in 2024. Although nearly one-third of voters believed the 2020 election contained high levels of voter fraud , trust in the 2024 election results remains to be seen.Additionally, the emergence of partisan media outlets on both ends of the political spectrum has given rise to increased concern surrounding disinformation and fake news, which has only been exacerbated by the advancement of artificial intelligence. As of 2023, only around 10 percent of Republicans in the United States \trusted the media to report the news fully, accurately, and fairly, compared to 68 percent of Democrats. Republican and Democratic voters place their trust in different political news sources, making it all the more difficult to ensure accurate information, build trust, and bridge political divides.
