UK election polls 2024

In April 2024, 43 percent of British adults would vote for the Labour Party in a general election, compared with 20 percent who would vote for the Conservative Party. The ruling Conservatives have trailed Labour in the polls throughout 2022 and 2023, with a huge gap emerging in September 2022 when Liz Truss came to power. Truss' short time as Prime Minister was widely seen as a disaster for the country and her party, and she was succeeded by Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister that October. Labour has maintained their lead in the polls since Sunak became Prime Minister, and would win the next general election based on the most recent polls.

 When is the next UK election?

The next UK general election is expected in 2024, but may take place as late as January 2025. Unlike many other democracies, general elections in the UK have no fixed date, with the power to call one resting with the Prime Minister, although this must be done at least every five years. While the last election in 2019 was held in the winter, it is unlikely that Sunak will wait until then to call an election, with a Spring or Autumn election in 2024 the most likely scenario. It may suit the Conservatives to bide their time until the Autumn, however, in the hope that the economic situation improves, giving a lift to Sunak's job rating and a boost to the government's sinking approval ratings. The job of catching Labour in the polls in 2024 may be a long shot for the Conservatives, especially as no ground was made up in 2023.

Sunak's five pledges - 2023

After a tough 2022, in which Britain suffered through its worst cost of living crisis in a generation, the economy was consistently identified as the main issue facing the country, just ahead of healthcare. To respond to these concerns, Rishi Sunak started 2023 with five pledges; halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce national debt, cut NHS waiting times, and stop small boats. One year on from this announcement, just one pledge can be said to be realized, with CPI inflation falling from 10.1 percent at the start of the year to 3.9 percent by November. There is some ambiguity regarding the success of some of the other pledges. The economy shrank in the third quarter of 2023, the national debt has increased slightly, while small boat arrivals are down from 2022, but still higher than in most other years. The pledge to cut NHS waiting times was not fulfilled either, with the number of people awaiting treatment rising in 2023.

Voting intentions in a general election in the United Kingdom from July 2017 to April 2024

Characteristic	Conservatives	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Reform UK	Green Party
Apr 24	20%	43%	8%	16%	8%
Mar 24	20%	47%	9%	13%	5%
Feb 24	21%	46%	9%	12%	7%
Jan 24	22%	46%	10%	11%	7%
Dec 23	22%	45%	10%	11%	7%
Nov 23	23%	47%	10%	8%	7%
Oct 23	24%	45%	11%	8%	7%
Sep 23	24%	46%	10%	6%	7%
Aug 23	25%	47%	10%	7%	6%
Jul 23	22%	47%	9%	9%	7%
Jun 23	26%	42%	11%	7%	8%
May 23	26%	43%	10%	6%	7%
Apr 23	27%	44%	9%	6%	7%
Mar 23	23%	45%	10%	7%	7%
Feb 23	24%	47%	10%	6%	6%
Jan 23	25%	46%	9%	7%	6%
Dec 22	24%	48%	9%	8%	6%
Nov 22	24%	50%	9%	6%	5%
Oct 22	22%	52%	9%	5%	6%
Sep 22	29%	44%	10%	3%	7%
Aug 22	33%	37%	11%	3%	8%
Jul 22	29%	40%	15%	3%	6%
Jun 22	33%	39%	10%	4%	6%
May 22	35%	36%	10%	4%	8%
Apr 22	33%	39%	9%	3%	8%
Mar 22	35%	37%	7%	5%	8%
Feb 22	32%	41%	10%	4%	6%
Jan 22	28%	38%	10%	4%	7%
Dec 21	33%	37%	9%	6%	7%
Nov 21	35%	35%	8%	4%	10%
Oct 21	37%	33%	9%	4%	10%
Sep 21	33%	35%	10%	5%	9%
Aug 21	40%	32%	9%	3%	8%
Jul 21	39%	34%	8%	3%	9%
Jun 21	46%	30%	6%	2%	9%
May 21	45%	30%	7%	2%	8%
Apr 21	42%	34%	7%	3%	6%
Mar 21	45%	32%	6%	3%	7%
Feb 21	41%	37%	6%	3%	6%
Jan 21	39%	39%	6%	3%	6%
Dec 20	38%	38%	6%	3%	5%
Nov 20	35%	40%	7%	2%	4%
Oct 20	41%	38%	5%	3%	6%
Sep 20	40%	40%	6%	3%	4%
Aug 20	42%	36%	8%	2%	5%
Jul 20	46%	36%	5%	2%	3%
Jun 20	45%	37%	6%	2%	4%
May 20	48%	33%	6%	2%	5%
Apr 20	53%	32%	5%	1%	3%
Mar 20	52%	28%	8%	1%	5%
Feb 20	49%	30%	8%	2%	4%
Jan 20	49%	29%	10%	2%	4%
Dec 19	43%	33%	13%	3%	4%
Nov 19	38%	25%	16%	11%	5%
Oct 19	35%	22%	20%	12%	6%
Sep 19	35%	25%	16%	11%	7%
Aug 19	31%	22%	21%	14%	7%
Jul 19	24%	18%	19%	22%	10%
Jun 19	18%	20%	20%	26%	9%
May 19	24%	24%	16%	18%	7%
Apr 19	36%	33%	11%	5%	4%
Mar 19	40%	31%	11%	-	4%
Feb 19	41%	34%	10%	-	4%
Jan 19	39%	34%	11%	-	4%
Dec 18	40%	38%	9%	-	4%
Nov 18	41%	37%	8%	-	4%
Oct 18	41%	37%	9%	-	3%
Sep 18	39%	35%	11%	-	4%
Aug 18	41%	38%	8%	-	3%
Jul 18	41%	40%	9%	-	2%
Jun 18	42%	39%	8%	-	3%
May 18	43%	38%	9%	-	2%
Apr 18	42%	41%	7%	-	2%
Mar 18	41%	43%	7%	-	2%
Feb 18	41%	42%	7%	-	2%
Jan 18	40%	41%	9%	-	5%
Dec 17	40%	41%	7%	-	2%
Nov 17	40%	43%	7%	-	2%
Oct 17	40%	42%	7%	-	2%
Sep 17	41%	42%	7%	-	2%
Aug 17	41%	42%	8%	-	1%
Jul 17	38%	46%	6%	-	1%

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Release date

April 2024

More information

Region

United Kingdom (Great Britain)

Survey time period

April 2-3, 2024

Number of respondents

2,004 respondents

Age group

18 years and older

Special properties

GB Adults

Method of interview

Online survey

Supplementary notes

Results have been weighted by likelihood to vote and excludes those who would not vote, don't know or refused.

* Reform UK were renamed in January 2021 and were known as the Brexit Party prior to this month.

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